Title:
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVAL TO ETHIOIA 2006-2015, A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Authors:
Agatamudi Lakshmana Rao, Bruk Semma and Tafere Tilahun

Abstract:
The aim of this research is time series analysis of international tourist arrival to Ethiopia, it focused on the monthly tourist arrival from January 2006 to December 2015 G.C. The goal of this study is to explore the number of tourist arrival to fit a Time series model for the monthly number of tourist arrival and to forecast a two year ahead of the number of tourist arrival. The analysis was done by using statistical software packages using this software’s and knowledge of time series analysis, trend, seasonal, ACF, PACF and Box- Jenkins analysis computed. From the trend plot the tourist arrival is fluctuate from month to month, quarter to quarter as well as from year to year. There is arrival fluctuation from month to month (not stationary) the minimum and maximum record of tourist arrival is 19995 and 88149 observed in the year 2006 and 2015 respectively. By differencing the data one times, a seasonally adjusted autoregressive moving average (SARIMA)(1,1,2)(0,1,1) model with seasonality factor of 12 was fitted for making a one-year ahead forecast. Proper model adequacy checking was done. One year ahead forecast showed that November, January, and December are the months with the most prominent values, and Tourist arrival expected to be 931238, which is 7.24% increment from 2015 total number of tourist arrival and in 2017 tourist arrival to Ethiopia may increase that is expect to be 991554 tourist may come to Ethiopia. This is 6.1 % increment than previous year tourist arrival 2016 and 12.9 % increment form 2015. And possible recommendations are Seasonality of tourist arrival to Ethiopia implies there is no equal demand in tourist flow