Title:
UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE AI REVOLUTION: A TEMPLATE ANALYSIS OF HUMAN CAPITAL DEFICIENCY, SOCIAL INEQUITY, AND CAREER-RELATED PERCEPTIONS AMONG MIDDLE-AGED WORKERS IN VIETNAM

Authors:
Tran Thi Ngoc Tram, Nguyen Xuan Hau, Vo Hoai Dung, Nguyen Phuoc Bao Khanh An and Dinh Thi Ngoc Ha, Vietnam

Abstract:
This study examines how middle-aged workers in Vietnam interpret unemployment risks amid rapid diffusion of artificial intelligence and automation. Addressing the lack of worker-centered evidence in a fast-digitizing yet institutionally fragmented labor market, it applies Template Analysis to twenty in-depth interviews with workers aged forty and above, triangulated with digital discourse from TikTok, Facebook, and VOZ.vn. The analysis identifies five overarching themes: (1) obsolescence and erosion of human capital, (2) perceived social inequity in recruitment, training, and everyday treatment, (3) deteriorating career-related outcome perceptions, (4) coping and reskilling strategies that provide short-term buffers but limited mobility, and (5) the moderating role of personality dispositions in appraisal and adaptation. Building on these insights, the paper proposes the Midlife AI Employment Vulnerability (MAIEV) Model, in which Human Capital Deficiency (HCD) and Perceived Social Inequity (PSI) positively co-vary with Career Related Outcome Perceptions (CROP), comprising Low Employability Perception (LEMP), Low Career Adaptability Perception (LCAP), and Unemployment Risk Perception (URP), while Vulnerable Personality Traits (VPT) moderate these relationships. The model clarifies how structural disadvantages and personality-based vulnerabilities intersect to shape employability, adaptability, and perceived risk, offering implications for targeted reskilling policy, age inclusive human resource practices, and future quantitative validation.